Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive: What May Occur Subsequent

Predicting the course of a conflict is rarely easy—however the leak of U.S. protection paperwork made forecasting the Ukrainian conflict much more difficult. The chaos triggered by the leak even led Ukrainian leaders to shake up their battlefield plans, according to CNN.

However spring has sprung, and on the battlefields of Ukraine, meaning it could quickly be time for a long-awaited counter-offensive. Whereas Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that his nation wants weapons earlier than it may possibly assault, other leaders have prompt it’s nearing time to strike—particularly as a weak Russian advance has depleted Russian forces.

George Barros, an analyst on the Russia and Ukraine portfolio on the Institute for the Research of Battle, says that his group makes a degree of not forecasting what is going to occur subsequent, partly, he says, to keep away from interfering within the battle. However in an interview with TIME, he walked by way of the geography and historical past of the battle—which can trace at what comes subsequent.

Learn Extra: The Mysteries of the Biggest Intel Leak in a Decade

Russia fortified a susceptible area

Ukrainian army leaders have prompt that the counter-offensive might press south. In February, Vadym Skibitskiy, the deputy head of the army’s intelligence directorate, said Ukraine is planning to “drive a wedge into the Russian entrance within the south—between Crimea and the Russian mainland.”

Russia seems to be significantly fearful about one situation, says Barros: the danger that Ukraine will assault Zaporizhzhia oblast. Satellite tv for pc imagery reveals that Russian forces fortified the world to guard logistical traces, together with obstacles designed to dam tanks.

This area is especially necessary to Ukraine for a number of main causes. For one, massive numbers of individuals reside within the space, together with Melitopol and Tokmak. The area can be alongside the Sea of Azov, and its ports are necessary for Ukraine to take care of international commerce.

The area can be important to the Russian army as a result of it’s the main plot of land connecting southern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia to the mainland, together with Crimea. The roads operating by way of the territory are the main provide routes for the 1000’s of troops stationed within the south. If Ukraine took it again, says Barros, it might create “the worst bottleneck ever.” With out it, Russia must depend on a single bridge that spans between Crimea and Krasnodar Krai, which Barros says remains to be in depleted situation since Ukraine attacked it in October.

However Ukraine might exploit different weaknesses

Skibitskiy has additionally prompt that Ukraine might strike at a well-known battleground: Bakhmut. In an interview with CNN in March, he famous that the Russians are “dropping important forces [in Bakhmut] and are operating out of vitality.”

“Very quickly, we’ll make the most of this chance, as we did previously close to Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balakliya and Kupyansk,” he added.

In line with Barros, Russian forces within the space are “degraded” after a very robust six months of combating with out an operational pause round Bakhmut. A month in the past, western officers estimated that as much as 30,000 Russian troops have been killed and wounded within the battle, the BBC reported on March 7. Again in late 2022, he notes, Russia’s assaults within the space slowed down, and Russia wanted to usher in a few of its elite air power troops to take care of its advance.

“The classical instance of a counter-offensive could be to use the native situations of your adversaries’ state of disrepair and exhaustion, which I feel is attribute of the place the Russians in Bakhmut at the moment are,” says Barros.

Learn Extra: Why Experts Are Growing Alarmed About Ukraine’s Air Defenses

Ukraine has proven it’s unpredictable

Regardless of these indications, nevertheless, Ukraine has additionally proven that it may possibly use info it’s sharing with the world to its benefit on the battlefield.

Final summer season, as an illustration, Ukraine loudly telegraphed its plans to assault within the south, with Zelensky declaring in July that Ukraine deliberate to retake town of Kherson by September. The Russians, in response, re-deployed a lot of their troops to the south, which led to the “hollowing out of the north and making it ripe for exploitation.”

As a substitute, nevertheless, Ukraine carried out two simultaneous however staggered counter-offensives, attacking each within the south and within the north, in two assaults that have been “mutually reinforcing,” says Barros. Finally, Ukraine “pressured the Russians to choose from a buffet of dangerous selections” and seized territory in each areas.

“One of many key the reason why the Ukrainians have been profitable within the North was as a result of they managed to efficiently play recreation on the Russians,” says Barros.

Contact us at letters@time.com.